How ACL Tears Affect Performance in the NFL
Hi everyone, I am a physical therapist who's passionate about fantasy sports.
I will summarize the main findings in this post, if you want more details feel free to read the study or ask in the comments. This study looks at 312 NFL players who underwent ACL reconstruction surgery from 2013 to 2018.
RETURN TO PLAY
Players who had an in season ACL injury were much more likely to RTP than those who had a preseason/offseason injury.
Players drafted in rounds 1-3 were more likely to RTP.
QBs are by far the most likely to. Only 2/14 did not return.
About 50% of RBs RTP.
Just under 50% of WRs/TEs (grouped together) RTP.
SNAP COUNTS
Snap counts decreased by about 50% in the first 3 years after returning. This is true even for players still in the league after 3 years post injury.
APPROXIMATE VALUE
According to this study's metrics, performance went down by about 40% (based on value) . There was less of a decrease in value for players who are still in the league 3 years post injury.
CONCLUSIONS FOR FANTASY FOOTABLL
Average time to RTS for an ACL is 12 months. A higher draft capital means that a player is much more likely to get a second chance after injury. QBs are most likely to return to a similar level compared to other positions. RBs experience the largest decrease in performance compared to other positions, but the drop off is less for players still in the league.
This research tells me that we probably undervalue round 1-3 RBs who tear their ACL, and are good candidates for a buy low. I will not be buying low on any position (except MAYBE QB) that tears their ACL with poor draft capital.